Weekly Updates: 1/5ish-1/12/25

Here is a summary of some of the content I interacted with in the first ~ two weeks of January.

I will formalize the format at some point, but just wanted to get this out the door.


Youtube

The LIE of Traditional Strength Training: Why I Moved On

This video helped me to think differently about my training and incorporate more natural movements for functionality.


Podcasts

Becky Kennedy Ferriss

- Learning about parenting helps me to decipher the patterns that lead to various behaviors in adulthood. Specifically in the language one can use. Major takeaway was that boundaries are one sided contracts, i.e. I set a boundary with you when I tell you something I will do irrespective of your actions.

Random Show Ferriss

- primarily led me to learn more about the spinal engine as the driver of movement

BTC 215

- Macro with Luke Gromen - I will need to relisten to this to digest fully. There is a lot of knowledge coming from Gromen and I need to develop a better understanding of how the various markets play into each other.

BTC 216

- Bitcoin in Africa. Reminds me of the fact that BTC hit all time highs in pretty much every currency before the USD. BTC will come to those who need it first, and likely people in the US last. We will see how things play out. Also got the LEAP framework - love the unknown, embrace the fear, align with your goals, power up your skills
tip 687

- William Green episode on the art of thoughtful wealth creation where he discusses his book RWH. I think I will purchase a physical copy of RWH as there is a lot of distilled wisdom from great investors/thinkers and it is worth revisiting.

All In Predictions Episode

- Generally like to hear these guys takes since they operate in vastly different spheres than me. I like the idea of looking ahead to the future and taking bets, and also reevaluating the bets from last year to see if they panned out and then why or why not.
All In Cyan Banister

- Cyan is great, first heard her on a Ferriss episode a few weeks ago. We are entering interesting times with a new president and the openness of information seems like a first in history. I am glad to be able to consume information from a variety of sources. We will see if All In finds their footing sans-Sacks.

Pomp Jordi Visser

- some bullet point takeaways to revisit

• Two forces, deflation 3-5%
• Inflection point is BTC's creation
• Industrial revolution is linear
• Singularity university? - want to look into this more
• Jeff Booth - revisit the price of tomorrow and see if he has other content out
• Peter Diamandis and ray kurzweil - look into their content

Is the dollar doomed - What is Money Pod w/ Luke Gromen

- A lot of wisdom from Gromen as usual, interesting to hear about how he raises his kids and generally his outlook on the current world.

Coin Stories Perianne Boring

- Several reminders of what an interesting time we are living through to see the institutional adoption of Bitcoin and the regulatory framework is being hashed out in real time

Macro Voices 461 Thomas Jam Jedersen nuclear fuel

- I am very interested in how we will transition to different energy sources in the coming years to accommodate the increasing need. This was the first I heard of Thorium and its use cases.

Btc Standard why we get sick

- This makes me want to do a service like Levels and track my glucose levels/test my fasting insulin regularly. More and more it seems like the key to chronic illness in the U.S. is tied to the rise in insulin resistance as a downstream effect of changing dietary habits.

Btc standard currency vs commodity
- The fiat incentive systems do not allow for error correction and this is not a beginning of infinity. Importance and meaninglessness of language. You can call X, Y, but that does not make it Y.
Provoked Scott Horton BTC Standard

- I enjoyed hearing Saif and Scott argue about different points. You can tell how well-researched and passionate Scott is about this topic. While there is no real impact in my day-to-day life about these topics, it is helpful to hear different perspectives from the mainstream.

Moment of Zen Marc Andreesen
- A number of powerful moments such as 2020 being peak centralization. I hope this is the case. I really have enjoyed Marc's guest spots on various podcasts over the last few weeks.

Jordan Peterson Huberman
- The importance of aiming upwards. Being serious about your goals, someone addicted to cocaine will make sure they get cocaine because that is their singular focus. I need to be better at defining my specific goals.

Ricky Sanders Capital Allocators
- Realizing that people give opinions and they may not be true. A number of other topics regarding investing that were helpful as I begin my journey

30 years with countless dead bodies mark bell
- I need to think more about functional movements. I learned a lot about male and female anatomy. I am glad someone is out there digging into thousands of dead bodies and can distill the insights he learns because that is not the career for me.

Mark bell segura

- bullet takeaways

• Working labor jobs, "this is a path" Tom had to work manual labor jobs to realize that that is a path in life some people take
• Changing mindset, don't need to eat all of a dessert
• Having limitations, being restrictive of yourself is not a problem, don't eat when not hungry
• Working out right when you get to hotel as a way to force yourself to do it
• Cascading effects of discipline, start with one thing and then it becomes easier to do another and another

Theo Von Rogan
- Just a fun listen. Theo has gotten so popular in the past two years and I think he is very intelligent and hides it quite well. I saw some clips online that prompted me to give this a listen during down time.

Zuck rogan

-bullet takeaways

• First couple of minutes my gut feeling is that I don’t trust this guy
• Quotes that were concerning, Mark said he was surprised by "What types of things they would fact check in the first place…it was like something out of 1984"
• "These people from the Biden administration would call our members of our team and scream and curse"
• "We try to have policies that reflect mainstream discourse" aka we will go with whatever is popular
• "Downloading into my memory" weird thing to say

Dave Smith Zuby

-bullet takeaways

• Chesterton fence with religion in the west
• Enemy of government is the family church and community
• Dictator of the world at the price of your own soul
• Either an empire or a limited constitutional republic
• There is no limited constitutional world empire
• Post health crisis we get rfk make the health of the american people a central campaign issue for ostensibly the first time. He says chronic illness is the highest in the US and the best people respond with is you’re an anti-vaxxer 

Billy bush tcn
- I saw a clip and thought it would be more substantive, but I guess it was nice to hear about Trump pre-presidency.

Sam Shoemate on Shawn Ryan
- This was just very odd after all of the details were new following the cybertruck explosion. Will be interesting to follow the story as it continues to develop.

Articles

The Secret Code of Pickup Basketball
The game presents a social problem: How does one find comity among a group of jostling Strangers?
https://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/2000/04/harper.htm
https://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/2000/04/harper2.htm

Howard Marks New Letter - On Bubble Watch

https://hilariusbookbinder.substack.com/p/the-omelette-fallacy
"Finally we get to my central claim. The Dunning-Kruger effect kicks in for things that (1) look easy, (2) are actually hard, and (3) are meta-hard.
The effect isn't just about incompetence breeding overconfidence—it's about the peculiar blindness that occurs when we can't easily verify our own failures."


https://www.zerohedge.com/political/read-between-lies-pattern-recognition-guide
- One to revisit overtime as recurring patterns emerge

https://www.lynalden.com/full-steam-ahead-all-aboard-fiscal-dominance/
-This article led me to revisit the below Vox article on the Truss episode. Full excepted quotes and charts from Lyn Alden below to finish out this post
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/role-borrowing-rise-gilt-yields-during-truss-episode-and-some-possible-implications




This episode revealed how fiscal policy can constrain a central bank’s independence. The Bank of England’s inflation-fighting efforts were temporarily undermined by the need to address financial instability—a clear example of fiscal dominance


Moreover, the recent introduction of a new liquidity tool for financial institutions during periods of stress suggests that underlying vulnerabilities in the gilt market remain.


In the U.S., debt-to-GDP is still hovering at levels not seen since World War II. But one big difference today compared to the last forty years is that interest rates are no longer structurally falling.

Since the late 1980s, interest rates have steadily fallen, making it easier for the government and Federal Reserve to manage and expand the debt burden. However, debt management gets complicated when interest rates start moving in the other direction.


Over the past four years, the federal funds rate has increased fivefold, while public debt has grown by more than 30%.




Fiscal dominance is an economic condition that occurs when a country’s debt and deficit levels are sufficiently high that monetary policy ceases to be an effective tool for controlling inflation. In fact, persistently high interest rates in an environment of perpetually large deficits actually risk exacerbating inflation.


We also propose a complimentary definition:


Fiscal dominance occurs when fiscal deficits become as significant as, or more important than, private sector lending and monetary policy in driving economic activity.


Even as the Federal Reserve raises rates to constrain private sector lending, higher interest payments inject liquidity into the economy. This creates demand and counters the Fed’s tightening efforts.





much of the private sector’s debt is fixed and long-term, making it less immediately sensitive to higher interest rates


for most of modern financial history, private sector debt creation was a larger force than the public deficit and associated public debt creation






Over the last 15 years, the fiscal deficit has grown much more rapidly than private sector credit creation, even during non-recessionary periods




the Fed’s interest rate hikes are unlikely to curb inflation like they did in the early 1980s. When former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker famously raised interest rates to nearly 20%, inflation was largely driven by private sector credit creation


fiscal deficits have become structural rather than cyclical in nature, we are continuing to run massive deficits despite the unemployment rate being near multi-decade lows.


structural deficits, when combined with money supply growth, lead to increased inflationary pressures


If there are no significant supply constraints in energy, raw materials, or other commodities, during periods of fiscal dominance, liquidity injected through government spending often flows into financial assets rather than consumer goods, driving up prices for stocks, real estate, gold, and bitcoin. In other words, asset prices can surge in periods of fiscal dominance, even if consumer prices are stable or even declining.


frustrating reality for households. While inflation may appear under control according to the CPI, surging asset prices erode purchasing power and make them increasingly unaffordable for many







On the surface, Turkey’s debt-to-GDP metrics appeared reasonable, but these figures masked a deeper issue: the fiscal deficit was driving currency debasement, which in turn inflated nominal GDP.


As nominal GDP and inflation run hot, debt-to-GDP ratios may appear stable or even decline, masking the extent of nominal debt accumulation and inflation in various forms.


Lowering rates could meaningfully reduce interest expenses, making it one of the simplest levers for policymakers to pull to alleviate fiscal pressures. However, doing so risks stoking inflation and undermining central bank independence. Conversely, maintaining elevated rates to curb inflation exacerbates fiscal deficits, increasing the debt burden through rising interest costs and potentially compounding inflationary pressures.


Higher rates strain government finances and worsen deficits, while lower rates invite inflationary pressures and fiscal complacency.


Over the last 15 years, foreign share of U.S. debt has declined from 47% to 30%


Tether was the ninth-largest holder of T-bills compared to other foreign countries


The potential solutions for overcoming fiscal dominance are limited and come down to two basic options: 1) the private sector grows to become the dominant force driving economic activity, or 2) fiscal deficits are meaningfully reduced.


This dynamic puts the U.S. in a tougher position than countries like Canada in the 1990s or Germany in the 2010s. Canada addressed its deficits with reforms on a tax base less reliant on financial markets, while a strong manufacturing and export economy supported Germany’s austerity. The U.S. economy, however, is deeply tied to the stock market, creating a strong incentive for policymakers to support equities rather than risk a drop in revenues from falling asset prices.


interest rate cuts could offer a meaningful path to fiscal sustainability by reducing the government’s interest expenses. However, this threatens central bank independence, which could lead to a loss of confidence in the currency.